基于不同权重的栖息地指数模型预报阿根廷滑柔鱼中心渔场   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

胡贯宇  陈新军  汪金涛 《海洋学报》2015,37(8):88-95

本文根据2003-2009年1-5月和2011年1-5月西南大西洋海域阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)的生产数据,结合遥感获得的海表面温度(SST)和海表面高度(SSH)数据,利用不同权重的栖息地指数模型来预报阿根廷滑柔鱼的中心渔场。采用外包络法,利用作业次数与SST、SSH建立适应性指数(SI)模型,依据作业次数比重和产量比重来比较不同权重的算术加权模型(AWM),从而筛选出最佳模型,并对最佳模型进行验证。结果显示,确定AWM(a=0.3,SST权重为0.3,SSH的权重为0.7)为最佳模型,当栖息地适应性指数(HSI)大于0.6时,作业次数的比重为93.23%,产量比重为89.28%,当HSI小于0.4时,作业次数的比重为2.12%,产量比重为3.35%。利用2011年1-5月的生产数据和环境数据对AWM(a=0.3)进行验证,结果显示,在HSI大于0.6的海域,各月作业次数比重均在91%以上,产量比重均在95%以上。研究表明,在阿根廷滑柔鱼渔场形成中SSH比SST更为重要,基于SST和SSH的AWM(a=0.3)能够较好地预测西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的中心渔场。  相似文献   

黄、渤海冷空气海浪场的集合预报试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王亚男  王庆元  刘彬贤 《海洋学报》2015,37(9):10-16

利用欧洲集合天气预报系统51个预报风场驱动SWAN海浪模式,对黄、渤海2013年12月-2014年2月期间受冷空气影响的海浪场进行数值模拟试验,并利用浮标观测资料对海浪集合预报结果进行初步检验分析,结果显示:从逐时平均偏差结果可知,24h预报时效内集合平均与控制预报性能相近,48~72h预报时效内,集合平均明显优于控制预报,但均比实况偏小;集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)明显优于集合平均,且预报时效越长,优势越明显,集合预报极端值与实况相当或略偏大;从逐24h平均偏差结果可知,集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)比集合平均和控制预报更接近实况。总的分析表明:集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)对受冷空气影响的海浪场具有较强的分辨能力,可以提高对海浪场的预报水平,且有较好的应用潜力。  相似文献   

Experimental research on horizontal bearing behavior of caisson-pile composite foundationEI北大核心CSCD     

Wang Lei  Guo Chao  Mu Bao-gang  Gong Wei-ming  Sun Zhen-wei 《岩土力学》2015,(11):3150-+

In this study, four groups of different types of bridge foundation model are tested to research the horizontal bearing behavior of caisson-pile composite foundation in lab based on the Qiongzhou Strait bridge project. The Q-s curve and horizontal ultimate bearing capacity of these four groups of foundations in sandy soil layer are obtained. Pile bending moment and shear force of pile shaft are analyzed in detail. At the same time, the load sharing ratio of caisson and piles is discussed. The results show that the horizontal ultimate bearing capacities of a single caisson foundation are increased by 1.2 times, 1.6 times and 2 times respectively with adding skirts, steel pipe pile, or steel pipe pile and the skirt. The maximum bending moment point is in the middle of the pile shaft, i.e. at about 0.5 m under the mud surface. The horizontal load is borne mainly by the upper caisson foundation and soil layers above the middle upper part of pile. The maximum shear force is found at the joint of pile top of steel pipe and caisson pile, where the reinforcement measures should be taken in practical engineering. The research achievements could provide a better reference for design or construction of caisson-pile composite foundation.  相似文献   

全站仪中间自由设站法三角高程测量浅析     

王慧超  孙莹 《北京测绘》2011,(1):52-54

阐述了全站仪中间自由设站法三角高程测量的原理及精度分析,经理论分析,该方法在一定条件下可达到三等水准测量的精度要求,特别适合山区高速公路、铁路等线性工程的高程控制测量.  相似文献   

Exploring Real‐Time Geoprocessing in Cloud Computing: Navigation Services Case Study     

Hassan Ali Karimi  Duangduen Roongpiboonsopit  Haopeng Wang 《Transactions in GIS》2011,15(5):613-633

Today, many real‐time geospatial applications (e.g. navigation and location‐based services) involve data‐ and/or compute‐intensive geoprocessing tasks where performance is of great importance. Cloud computing, a promising platform with a large pool of storage and computing resources, could be a practical solution for hosting vast amounts of data and for real‐time processing. In this article, we explored the feasibility of using Google App Engine (GAE), the cloud computing technology by Google, for a module in navigation services, called Integrated GNSS (iGNSS) QoS prediction. The objective of this module is to predict quality of iGNSS positioning solutions for prospective routes in advance. iGNSS QoS prediction involves the real‐time computation of large Triangulated Irregular Networks (TINs) generated from LiDAR data. We experimented with the Google App Engine (GAE) and stored a large TIN for two geoprocessing operations (proximity and bounding box) required for iGNSS QoS prediction. The experimental results revealed that while cloud computing can potentially be used for development and deployment of data‐ and/or compute‐intensive geospatial applications, current cloud platforms require improvements and special tools for handling real‐time geoprocessing, such as iGNSS QoS prediction, efficiently. The article also provides a set of general guidelines for future development of real‐time geoprocessing in clouds.  相似文献   

Monitoring global land surface drought based on a hybrid evapotranspiration model     

Yunjun Yao  Shunlin Liang  Qiming Qin  Kaicun Wang  Shaohua Zhao 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011

The latent heat of evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in the assessment of drought severity as one sensitive indicator of land drought status. A simple and accurate method of estimating global ET for the monitoring of global land surface droughts from remote sensing data is essential. The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid ET model by introducing empirical coefficients based on a simple linear two-source land ET model, and to then use this model to calculate the Evaporative Drought Index (EDI) based on the actual estimated ET and the potential ET in order to characterize global surface drought conditions. This is done using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) products, AVHRR-NDVI products from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 (NCEP-2) datasets. We randomly divided 22 flux towers into two groups and performed a series of cross-validations using ground measurements collected from the corresponding flux towers. The validation results from the second group of flux towers using the data from the first group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −6.72 W/m² to 12.95 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −1.73 W/m². Similarly, the validation results of the first group of flux towers using data from second group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −12.91 W/m² to 10.26 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −3.59 W/m². To evaluate the reliability of the hybrid ET model on a global scale, we compared the estimated ET from the GEWEX, AVHRR-GIMMS-NDVI, and NECP-2 datasets with the latent heat flux from the Global Soil Wetness Project-2 (GSWP-2) datasets. We found both of them to be in good agreement, which further supports the validity of our model's global ET estimation. Significantly, the patterns of monthly EDI anomalies have a good spatial and temporal correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) anomalies from January 1984 to December 2002, which indicates that the method can be used to accurately monitor long-term global land surface drought.  相似文献   

Aircraft Observations of Sea-Surface Turbulent Fluxes Near the California Coast   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

John Kalogiros  Qing Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,139(2):283-306

Aircraft turbulence data from the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network project were analyzed and compared to the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) bulk parametrization of turbulent fluxes in an ocean area near the coast of California characterized by complex atmospheric flow. Turbulent fluxes measured at about 35 m above the sea surface using the eddy-correlation method were lower than bulk estimates under unstable and stable atmospheric stratification for all but light winds. Neutral turbulent transfer coefficients were used in this comparison because they remove the effects of mean atmospheric conditions and atmospheric stability. Spectral analysis suggested that kilometre-scale longitudinal rolls affect significantly turbulence measurements even near the sea surface, depending on sampling direction. Cross-wind sampling tended to capture all the available turbulent energy. Vertical soundings showed low boundary-layer depths and high flux divergence near the sea surface in the case of sensible heat flux but minimal flux divergence for the momentum flux. Cross-wind sampling and flux divergence were found to explain most of the observed discrepancies between the measured and bulk flux estimates. At low wind speeds the drag coefficient determined with eddy correlation and an inertial dissipation method after corrections were applied still showed high values compared to bulk estimates. This discrepancy correlated with the dominance of sea swell, which was a usually observed condition under low wind speeds. Under stable atmospheric conditions measured sensible heat fluxes, which usually have low values over the ocean, were possibly affected by measurement errors and deviated significantly from bulk estimates.  相似文献   

A Spatially-Analytical Scheme for Surface Temperatures and Conductive Heat Fluxes in Urban Canopy Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zhi-Hua Wang  Elie Bou-Zeid  James A. Smith 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2011,138(2):171-193

In the urban environment, surface temperatures and conductive heat fluxes through solid media (roofs, walls, roads and vegetated surfaces) are of paramount importance for the comfort of residents (indoors) and for microclimatic conditions (outdoors). Fully discrete numerical methods are currently used to model heat transfer in these solid media in parametrisations of built surfaces commonly used in weather prediction models. These discrete methods usually use finite difference schemes in both space and time. We propose a spatially-analytical scheme where the temperature field and conductive heat fluxes are solved analytically in space. Spurious numerical oscillations due to temperature discontinuities at the sublayer interfaces can be avoided since the method does not involve spatial discretisation. The proposed method is compared to the fully discrete method for a test case of one-dimensional heat conduction with sinusoidal forcing. Subsequently, the analytical scheme is incorporated into the offline version of the current urban canopy model (UCM) used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the new UCM is validated against field measurements using a wireless sensor network and other supporting measurements over a suburban area under real-world conditions. Results of the comparison clearly show the advantage of the proposed scheme over the fully discrete model, particularly for more complicated cases.  相似文献   

How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

June-Yi Lee  Bin Wang  Q. Ding  K.-J. Ha  J.-B. Ahn  A. Kumar  B. Stern  O. Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1189-1203

The retrospective forecast skill of three coupled climate models (NCEP CFS, GFDL CM2.1, and CAWCR POAMA 1.5) and their multi-model ensemble (MME) is evaluated, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer upper-tropospheric circulation along with surface temperature and precipitation for the 25-year period of 1981–2005. The seasonal prediction skill for the NH 200-hPa geopotential height basically comes from the coupled models’ ability in predicting the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of interannual variability, because the models cannot replicate the residual higher modes. The first two leading EOF modes of the summer 200-hPa circulation account for about 84% (35.4%) of the total variability over the NH tropics (extratropics) and offer a hint of realizable potential predictability. The MME is able to predict both spatial and temporal characteristics of the first EOF mode (EOF1) even at a 5-month lead (January initial condition) with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skill of 0.96 and a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.62. This long-lead predictability of the EOF1 comes mainly from the prolonged impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the EOF1 tends to occur during the summer after the mature phase of ENSO. The second EOF mode (EOF2), on the other hand, is related to the developing ENSO and also the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. The MME also captures the EOF2 at a 5-month lead with a PCC skill of 0.87 and a TCC skill of 0.67, but these skills are mainly obtained from the zonally symmetric component of the EOF2, not the prominent wavelike structure, the so-called circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. In both observation and the 1-month lead MME prediction, the first two leading modes are accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of the NH extratropics. The MME’s success in predicting the EOF1 (EOF2) is likely to lead to a better prediction of JJA precipitation anomalies over East Asia and the North Pacific (central and southern Europe and western North America).  相似文献   

Influences of climate change on California and Nevada regions revealed by a high-resolution dynamical downscaling study     

Lin-Lin Pan  Shu-Hua Chen  Dan Cayan  Mei-Ying Lin  Quinn Hart  Ming-Hua Zhang  Yubao Liu  Jianzhong Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(9-10):2005-2020

In this study, the influence of climate change to California and Nevada regions was investigated through high-resolution (4-km grid spacing) dynamical downscaling using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model. The dynamical downscaling was performed to both the GFS (Global forecast model) reanalysis (called GFS-WRF runs) from 2000?C2006 and PCM (Parallel Climate Model) simulations (called PCM-WRF runs) from 1997?C2006 and 2047?C2056. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing current model outputs with the observational analysis PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) dataset. In general, the dominant features from GFS-WRF runs and PCM-WRF runs were consistent with each other, as well as with PRISM results. The influences of climate change on the California and Nevada regions can be inferred from the model future runs. The averaged temperature showed a positive trend in the future, as in other studies. The temperature increases by around 1?C2°C under the assumption of business as usual over 50?years. This leads to an upward shifting of the freezing level (the contour line of 0°C temperature) and more rain instead of snow in winter (December, January, and February). More hot days (>32.2°C or 90°F) and extreme hot days (>37.8°C or 100°F) are predicted in the Sacramento Valley and the southern parts of California and Nevada during summer (June, July, and August). More precipitation is predicted in northern California but not in southern California. Rainfall frequency slightly increases in the coast regions, but not in the inland area. No obvious trend of the surface wind was indicated. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of daily temperature, wind and precipitation for California and Nevada showed no significant change in shape in either winter or summer. The spatial distributions of precipitation frequency from GFS-WRF and PCM-WRF were highly correlated (r?=?0.83). However, overall positive shifts were seen in the temperature field; increases of 2°C for California and 3°C for Nevada in summer and 2.5°C for California and 1.5°C for Nevada in winter. The PDFs predicted higher precipitation in winter and lower precipitation in the summer for both California and Nevada.  相似文献